The General's Briefing

• CENTCOM confirms 3,000+ targets struck in Iran since Day 1. Strikes have hit at least 26 of Iran's 31 provinces. Tehran is the most heavily targeted location.
• 43 Iranian warships sunk or destroyed. CENTCOM: "Iran's navy is combat ineffective." Iranian drone carrier ship (WWII aircraft carrier-class) struck and sunk. IRIS Dena frigate sunk by U.S. submarine in the Indian Ocean — 104 crew killed, 32 wounded. First Iranian warship sunk in the Indian Ocean in this conflict.
• Iran's ballistic missile launches down 90% from Day 1. Drone attacks down 83%. B-2 bombers struck buried launchers and hardened command infrastructure throughout the week.
• NEW Israel struck Iranian oil storage facilities for the first time Saturday night — Shahran fuel depot northwest of Tehran. Massive fire confirmed via satellite and open-source footage. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said Sunday the U.S. does not plan to target Iranian oil infrastructure itself.
• NEW U.S. special forces operation reported inside Iran. Fortune/multiple outlets reporting this development. No official confirmation yet. Objective unknown.
• U.S. B-1 bomber redeployed to UK airbase. Additional forces continuing to flow to theater. Trump: defense manufacturers will "quadruple" weapons production.
• Cost estimate: First 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury cost approximately $3.7 billion (~$891M/day), per CSIS. Most spending was not pre-budgeted.
• Trump: Operation going "unbelievably good." White House: campaign may last four to six weeks. A senior Israeli military official told NPR that Israel needs three more weeks to wipe out Iran's military forces — but acknowledges Trump could end it at any time.
• Congress voted on War Powers curb — failed 212-219 in the House. A similar measure failed in the Senate. No legislative brake on executive authority.

• LEADERSHIP Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by Assembly of Experts on March 8. Age 56. Son of slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Close ties to IRGC — served in Iran-Iraq War, cultivated IRGC relationships for decades. Never held elected office. Never given a public speech. Considered deeply hardline. IRGC and armed forces pledged allegiance within hours of announcement.
• Selection process was contentious. IRGC applied "repeated contacts and psychological and political pressure" to force a fast vote, per Iran International sources. Some Assembly members opposed on grounds of religious credentials and dynastic echoes of the Shah. Assembly of Experts met largely online. U.S./Israel struck the Assembly's Qom office after votes were cast but before count was complete.
• Trump called Mojtaba "a lightweight" and "unacceptable," saying he wanted to be "involved in the appointment." Iran explicitly rejected this. Iran parliament speaker mocked Trump's demands publicly. Trump told ABC News: "He's going to have to get approval from us. If he doesn't get approval from us, he's not going to last long." Senator Lindsey Graham: "I believe it's just a matter of time before he meets the same fate as his father."
• Russia's Putin pledged "unwavering" support for Mojtaba's appointment. China said it opposed any targeting of the new Supreme Leader. Tehran's Western allies are fracturing from the U.S./Israeli position.
• Iran FM Araghchi on NBC "Meet the Press": explicitly rejected ceasefire. "We need to continue fighting for the sake of our people and our security." Said the prior 12-day war ceasefire was shattered by U.S. and Israel, making a new ceasefire impossible under current terms. Demanded a "permanent end to the war."
• IRGC declares Hormuz remains under their control. Senior Iranian official: war has entered a "new phase" following oil depot strikes. Warned Iran may retaliate on the region's energy infrastructure "in the coming days."
• CNN's Fred Pleitgen entered Iran Thursday: more checkpoints than usual, armed personnel on roads to Tehran, but no signs of panic. Shops open and stocked. No fuel shortages visible.
• Iran International: Some IRGC personnel failed to report to bases. Concerns over continued strikes and chain-of-command disruption following Khamenei's death. Some "disarray" reported — but the regime has not splintered, per European and Arab officials cited by Washington Post.
• NEW Russia providing intelligence to Iran on U.S. force locations, including intel that could help Iran target American warships, per NBC News, citing 4 sources with knowledge of the matter. Iran FM declined to confirm or deny.
• Former President Ahmadinejad: Reports of his death were false. He survived, moved to a safe location, per Iran International.

• Iran has struck targets across 9+ countries: Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. Plus UK base in Cyprus and reported missile toward Turkey.
• Iran launched what it described as a "hybrid attack" against Israel late Thursday — cluster warhead sub-munitions visible on camera. Multiple explosions confirmed.
• NEW Iran struck a desalination plant in Bahrain. Escalation to civilian water infrastructure.
• NEW NATO intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile entering Turkish airspace. Turkey accused Iran. Iran denied. NATO will not trigger Article 5. NATO has raised missile defense posture across all member states. This is the first time NATO forces have intercepted an Iranian missile heading toward a member country.
• UAE: 119 drones and 15 ballistic missiles intercepted in latest reported wave. Four foreign nationals killed in UAE from aerial debris — all confirmed in Dubai area.
• Saudi Arabia: First confirmed Saudi deaths — 2 killed, 12 wounded when a military projectile struck a residential facility in Al-Kharj. State Department ordered non-emergency Embassy Riyadh staff to depart.
• Iraq: Drone hit the Erbil Arjaan hotel after U.S. Embassy warning of attacks on foreigner-frequented hotels. Amazon Web Services reported significant disruption in the Middle East after three data centers were hit by drone strikes.
• Iran continues to strike at U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain's Juffair area multiple times. Iran has targeted at least 27 U.S. bases in the region total.
• Iran's president Pezeshkian offered to halt attacks on Gulf states "as long as their territories were not used to attack Iran." The offer was largely rejected — and Iranian strikes on Gulf targets continued anyway.

• Profile: Age 56. Second son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Studied theology in Qom. Served IRGC in Iran-Iraq War (1980s) — injured in combat. Built IRGC relationships over decades, including ties to IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi, former IRGC intelligence chief Hossein Taeb, and parliament speaker Ghalibaf. Sanctioned by U.S. Treasury in 2019 for "advancing his father's destabilizing regional ambitions."
• No public voice: Mojtaba has never given a public speech. Many Iranians have never heard his voice. His political opinions are "not fully known" per open-source analysis, but all available indicators point to hardline posture.
• Legitimacy problem: He is a hojatoleslam (mid-level cleric), not an ayatollah. His father was not an ayatollah either when he became Supreme Leader in 1989 — the law was amended then. A similar accommodation is expected. His selection was also seen as creating a dynasty echoing the Pahlavi monarchy — a sensitive parallel in a republic founded on overthrow of hereditary rule.
• Significance: His selection signals the IRGC now controls Iranian leadership more directly than at any point since 1979. The IRGC drove the selection process under wartime pressure. The result is an Iran that is more, not less, militarized in its political decision-making.
• Ceasefire implications: Analysts at Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, and Rami Khouri (American University of Beirut): The appointment signals continuity, not compromise. It was described as "an act of defiance." Iran is "telling the Americans and Israelis: you wanted to get rid of our system?"
• Targeting threat: Israel has vowed to pursue any replacement for Khamenei. Trump has said he must have U.S. approval or he "won't last long." Netanyahu said he is seeking to "destabilize the regime and enable change."

• 2 IDF KIA Two Israeli soldiers killed in southern Lebanon — first IDF ground fatalities since fighting with Hezbollah resumed. Master Sergeant Maher Khatar (38, from Majdal Shams, Combat Engineering Corps, 91st Division) and a second soldier confirmed killed in the same incident.
• Lebanese health ministry: 394 killed, 1,130 wounded since Monday, March 2. Over 517,000 displaced — registered on government portal; actual number almost certainly higher. 83 children confirmed dead.
• NEW Israeli special forces raided Nabi Chit in eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley via four Apache helicopters, arriving from Syrian direction. Hezbollah forces detected the infiltration and engaged — IDF launched approximately 40 air raids to cover withdrawal. Lebanese NNA reports 26–41 killed, 35+ wounded. IDF claimed the operation was to locate missing pilot Ron Arad (missing since 1986) — found nothing.
• NEW Israeli strike on hotel in central Beirut (Ramada Plaza, Rawche area) — 4 killed, 10 wounded. IDF said it targeted IRGC Quds Force commanders in the building. The strike targeted the heart of Beirut, not the southern suburbs — a geographic escalation.
• Israel's overnight strikes killed five Iranian IRGC commanders based in Lebanon. IDF: "Will not allow Iranian terrorist elements to establish themselves in Lebanese territory."
• Israel issued evacuation order for entire Beirut southern suburbs — over half a million people affected. French President Macron called Lebanese President Aoun expressing support. Macron also pushed for ceasefire and called for Gaza Rafah crossing to stay open.
• NEW Lebanese parliament extended its term by 2 years as Israeli strikes intensify — constitutional governance in Lebanon is now suspended.
• Hezbollah clashed with Israeli troops in the Bekaa Valley (Nabi Chit operation). Hezbollah previously attacked 3 Israeli military bases, including in occupied Golan Heights. Continues to fire rockets into northern Israel, Tel Aviv, and Jerusalem.
• Israel also struck Tripoli in northern Lebanon for the first time (Day 6), indicating the operational zone has expanded beyond the south.
• Lebanon's PM Salam: banned Hezbollah military activity, called for weapons surrender. Hezbollah rejected the ban. Lebanon's Amal Movement, Hezbollah's Shiite parliamentary partner, is increasingly at odds with Hezbollah. Internal Shiite fracture is emerging under the pressure of Israeli bombardment.
• A senior Israeli defense official told NPR: Israel aims to "dismantle Iran's military forces" and "wipe out" Hezbollah's capacity within three weeks.

• Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. IRGC: "Iran will not give up control of the Strait of Hormuz until it achieves its desired results." Any vessel attempting transit will be set ablaze.
• Iraq's oil output has dropped 70% due to inability to ship crude. Kuwait and other Gulf exporters curtailing exports for the same reason. Saudi Arabia cut output. OPEC+ planned a minor +206,000 bbl/day increase for April — widely seen as irrelevant to the crisis.
• Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned the Financial Times: Gulf producers could be forced to halt production within days. Price could hit $150/bbl. "Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days."
• Lloyd's of London war risk coverage suspended for Persian Gulf. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd remain offline for Hormuz transits. Ships rerouting via Cape of Good Hope — adding weeks and massive cost to all transits.
• Saudi East-West bypass pipeline: 2.6M bbl/day capacity vs. 16.7M normally through the Strait — gap is not closeable by alternative routes. Saudi Ras Tanura refinery struck by drones. U.S.-flagged tanker Stena Imperative previously struck.
• NEW Iranian oil depots now being struck by Israel (Shahran, Tehran). A senior Iranian official warned this crosses a threshold and Iran may now retaliate against regional energy infrastructure.
• 11,000+ regional flights cancelled since February 28. Dubai International Airport (world's busiest) damaged by drone strike — reopened in limited capacity only. Hundreds of thousands of travelers stranded.

• Iraq: Saraya Awliya al-Dam and Kataib Hezbollah continue drone attacks on U.S. forces at Baghdad airport and Erbil. Jurf al-Sakher base struck by U.S./Israel — 2 PMF fighters killed, 5 wounded. Erbil hotel struck after U.S. Embassy warning.
• Houthis: Restrained. Since the 2025 U.S.–Houthi ceasefire, they have confined themselves to rhetorical solidarity for Iran. ACLED analysis: Houthis appear restrained by 2025 Israeli strikes that killed Sanaa government leadership — they do not want to invite another decapitation strike. Their posture is "hands on the trigger" but not yet active.
• Pakistan/Afghanistan: Operation Ghazab Lil Haq continues along Durand Line. Situation broadly unchanged from prior reporting.
• NATO: Article 5 not triggered despite Turkish airspace breach. NATO Secretary-General Rutte: no Article 5. All NATO members on increased missile defense readiness. U.S. B-1 bomber forward deployed to UK base.
• Europe drawn in: UK, France, Spain agreed to provide military support to protect allied interests. France calling for emergency UNSC meetings. EU Extraordinary Foreign Affairs Council has met. European natural gas prices up 20%+, with depleted stockpiles entering spring.

Goldman Sachs: Brent projected to average $76/Q2 as base case — but warns of $100–120 if Hormuz closure persists, and $140–150 if it holds past 30 days. Kpler analyst: Oil could reach $150 by end of March if strait doesn't reopen. Qatar Energy Minister: $150 possible; force majeure declarations imminent. IEA: G7 discussing coordinated SPR release — U.S. SPR at 415M barrels; some officials want to release 300–400M barrels. Trump downplayed SPR use: "Short term oil prices... is a very small price to pay." Pre-war expectation was a 3.7M bbl/day global surplus for 2026 — now a deficit. Iraq output: -70%. Defense contractor stocks continue to outperform globally. Amazon Web Services reports significant regional disruption following drone strikes on three Middle East data centers.

• State Department ordered departure of non-emergency personnel from 14 countries. Saudi Arabia added to the departure order following continued strikes.
• Trump on ABC: "He's going to have to get approval from us" regarding new Supreme Leader. Called oil spike "a little glitch" and said "We had to take this detour. I knew exactly what was going to happen."
• Trump demanded "unconditional surrender" from Iran. Iran: "We will not negotiate with the United States."
• France's Macron called for ceasefire and emergency UNSC sessions. EU 27 FMs held extraordinary meeting. Consular cooperation activated across Europe.
• Russia's Putin offered "unwavering" support for Mojtaba Khamenei. China opposed targeting the new leader. Both powers are positioning explicitly against U.S./Israeli war objectives.
• U.S. intelligence confirmed Russia providing Iran with intelligence on U.S. force locations, including American warship positions. This represents direct Russian military assistance to an adversary in an active theater — a qualitative escalation in the geopolitical dimension of this war.
• Trump spoke with Kurdish leaders in Iran about potential opposition push against the regime. Regime change through internal uprising remains the stated end-state aspiration, even as the military track continues.
• U.S. War Powers Resolution votes: Failed in House 212-219; failed in Senate. No legislative constraint on presidential war authority.
• NATO: Article 5 not triggered. NATO members unanimously raised missile defense posture. Turkey is in a precarious position — accuses Iran of firing on NATO territory, Iran denies. Erdogan's government previously had residual ties with Tehran — that relationship is now severely strained or broken.
• Israel: Netanyahu holds press conference seeking to "destabilize the regime and enable change." A senior defense official stated publicly the goal is to wipe out Iran's military forces. The timeline is three weeks if Trump doesn't end it first.